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Daniel Lemire's blog
How do you recognize an expert?

Go back to the roots: experience. An expert is someone who has repeatedly solved the concrete problem you are encountering. If your toilet leaks, an experienced plumber is an expert. An expert has a track record and has had to face the consequences of their work. Failing is part of what makes an expert: any expert should have stories about how things went wrong.

I associate the word expert with ‘the problem’ because we know that expertise does not transfer well: a plumber does not necessarily make a good electrician. And within plumbing, there are problems that only some plumbers should solve. Furthermore, you cannot abstract a problem: you can study fluid mechanics all you want, but it won’t turn you into an expert plumber.

That’s one reason why employers ask for relevant experience: they seek expertise they can rely on. It is sometimes difficult to acquire expertise in an academic or bureaucratic setting because the problems are distant or abstract. Your experience may not translate well into practice. Sadly we live in a society where we often lose track of and undervalue genuine expertise… thus you may take software programming classes from people who never built software or civil engineering classes from people who never worked on infrastructure projects.

So… how do you become an expert? Work on real problems. Do not fall for reverse causation: if all experts dress in white, dressing in white won’t turn you into an expert. Listening to the expert is not going to turn you into an expert. Lectures and videos can be inspiring but they don’t build your expertise. Getting a job with a company that has real problems, or running your own business… that’s how you acquire experience and expertise.

Why would you want to when you can make a good living otherwise, without the hard work of solving real problems? Actual expertise is capital that can survive a market crash or a political crisis. After Germany’s defeat in 1945… many of the aerospace experts went to work for the American government. Relevant expertise is robust capital.

Why won’t everyone seek genuine expertise? Because there is a strong countervailing force: showing a total lack of practical skill is a status signal. Wearing a tie shows that you don’t need to work with your hands.

But again: don’t fall for reverse causality… broadcasting that you don’t have useful skills might be fun if you are already of high status… but if not, it may not grant you a higher status.

And status games without a solid foundation might lead to anxiety. If you can get stuff done, if you can fix problems, you don’t need to worry so much about what people say about you. You may not like the color of the shoes of your plumber, but you won’t snob him over it.

So get expertise and maintain it. You are likely to become more confident and happier.

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Arch Linux: Recent news updates
Arch Linux 2024 Leader Election Results

Recently we held our leader election, and the previous Project Leader Levente "anthraxx" Polyák ran again while no other people were nominated for the role.

As per our election rules he is re-elected for a new term.

The role of of the project lead within Arch Linux is connected to a few responsibilities regarding decision making (when no consensus can be reached), handling financial matters with SPI and overall project management tasks.

Congratulations to Levente and all the best wishes for another successful term! 🥳

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(author: Christian Heusel)
Daniel Lemire's blog
Science and Technology links (April 13 2024)

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1. Our computer hardware exchange data using a standard called PCI Express. Your disk, your network and your GPU are limited by what PCI Express can do. Currently, it means that you are limited to a few gigabytes per second of bandwidth. PCI Express is about to receive a big performance boost in 2025 when PCI Express 7 comes out: it will support bandwidth of up to 512 GB/s. That is really, really fast. It does not follow that your disks and graphics are going to improve very soon, but it provides the foundation for future breakthroughs.
2. Sperm counts are down everywhere and the trend is showing no sign of slowing down. There are indications that it could be related to the rise in obesity.
3. A research paper by Burke et al. used a model to predict that climate change could reduce world GPD (the size of the economy) by 23%. For reference, world GDP grows at a rate of about 3% a year (+/- 1%) so that a cost of 23% is about equivalent to 7 to 8 years without growth. It is much higher than prior predictions. Barket (2024) questions these results:
It is a complicated paper that makes strong claims. The authors use thousands of lines of code to run regressions containing over 500 variables to test a nonlinear model of temperature and growth for 166 countries and forecast economic growth out to the year 2100. Careful analysis of their work shows that they bury inconvenient results, use misleading charts to confuse readers, and fail to report obvious robustness checks. Simulations suggest that the statistical significance of their results is inflated. Continued economic growth at levels similar to what the world has experienced in recent years would increase the level of future economic activity by far more than Nordhaus’ (2018) estimate of the effect of warming on future world GDP. If warming does not affect the rate of economic growth, then the world is likely to be much richer in the future, with or without warming temperatures.

4. The firm McKinsey reports finding statistically significant positive relations between the industry-adjusted earnings and the racial/ethnic diversity of their executives. Green and Hand (2024) fail to reproduce these results. They conclude: despite the imprimatur given to McKinsey’s studies, their results should not be relied on to support the view that US publicly traded firms can expect to deliver improved financial performance if they increase the racial/ethnic diversity of their executives.
5. Corinth and Larrimore (2024) find that after adjusting for hours worked, Generation X and Millennials experienced a greater intergenerational increase in real market income than baby boomers.

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